April 4th, 2013
Economic Indicators
| Region |
GDP
Growth |
Cons
Price
Increase |
Unempl
oyment
Rate |
Current
Account |
Budget
Deficit |
T-Bond Yield
% |
|
2014
Forecast
% |
2013
Forecast
% |
Latest % |
Forecast
2013 %
of GDP |
Forecast
2013 %
of GDP |
3m |
10yr |
| USA |
2.6 |
1.8 |
7.7 |
-2.6 |
-5.8 |
0.28 |
2.04 |
| Euroarea |
0.8 |
1.9 |
11.9 |
+1.2 |
-2.8 |
0.20 |
1.48 |
| Japan |
1.4 |
0.1 |
4.2 |
+0.9 |
-9.0 |
0.16 |
0.63 |
| China |
7.8 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
+1.8 |
-2.0 |
3.88 |
3.29 |
| UK |
1.5 |
2.7 |
7.8 |
-2.5 |
-7.8 |
0.49 |
2.16 |
Source: The Economist, Mar 16th, 2013.
Regional Analysis (Mar 19th, 2013)
USA
The US stock market is within 1.0% of an all-time high and, home prices that bottomed in 2008 show consistent
gains. Bernanke pledged further easy money till unemployment is below 6.5% (about fifteen months away) or
expected long-term inflation is higher than 2.5%. Growth in Government borrowing looks to be constrained either
with or without political compromise, that may extend the amount of time till the unemployment target is reached.
Eurozone
Governments with unreasonable market borrowing rates can have unlimited refinancing from the ECB as long as
agreed austerity measures are in place. Decreasing fertility requires increased productivity or immigration for
economic growth. The majority of the polarized electorate now appreciate Government spending will only increase
taxes for the diminished next generation. Whilst EU regulation constrains the free market, high unemployment and
inflation concerns remain.
Japan
An ageing population spend their savings and a small bubble of workers at their most productive assist economic
growth. The LDP’s return to power provides a mandate for the Bank of Japan to increase it’s inflation goal to 2%
and weaken the currency. Immigration controls need to be drastically relaxed to promote an improvement in the
long term economic growth rate. Unnecessary Government spending and borrowing are now reaching punishable
levels.
China
A large proportion of the working population will move into retirement, due to the one child policy. Chinese growth is
therefore expected to slow and could even decline over the next decade and a half. Even so China’s developing
consumer sector benefits from jobs in global manufacturing, attracted by cheap labour costs and traditional work
ethic. Continued public works and relaxed lending criteria assist near term economic growth.
UK
The Conservative/Liberal coalition commitment to maintaining Government borrowing at sustainable levels has
waned. Mark Carney is expected to restore the credibility of the Bank of England with monetary and regulatory
discipline. A recovery in savings rates continues to correct the UK housing market.
Tags: ageing population, austerity, austerity measures, bank of england, bank of japan, bernanke, China, currency, ECB, government spending, immigration controls, inflation, Japan, manufacturing, retirement, Savings, Stock Market, uk, us, USA
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April 4th, 2013
Quarterly Capital Market Outlook
Updated April 3rd 2012
Country Outlook
Asset Class
- Equities – annual single digit gains, restricted by: move towards fiscal balance and, anticipation of tightening in
monetary stance.
- Govt Bonds – continued support due to suppressed inflation until anticipation of signalled Fed funds rate of 1% by
2015.
- Equities – a new credible central banker’s monetary and regulatory discipline and anemic economic growth bode
ill.
- Govt Bonds – following US Treasury’s lead.
- Currency – slow growth and belated austerity maintain pressure.
- Equities – Long deserved Cyprus bank rescue model concerns investors in troubled areas.
- Govt Bonds – Continued recession and ECB assistance with low interest rates and credit lines give continued support
for all nations.
- Currency – Poor growth and continued low interest rates continue to weigh.
- Equities – Manufactured currency depreciation now provides fuel.
- Govt Bonds – Low inflation and interest rates maintain support.
- Currency – Commitment to an inflationary target with low interest rates allows overvalued currency to depreciate.
- Equities – After strong recovery since 2008 look to take money off the table.
- Commodities - Loose money supports gold, others to fair worse.
Uncertainties
- Russian political interference in its return to free market.
- Chinese growing military capabilities.
- Iran.
- Necessary EU & US regulation of modern financial institutions and products.
- Mid-East political developments.
Tags: asset class, austerity, bonds, commodities, country outlook, currency, currency depreciation, ECB, fiscal balance, inflation, ira, Japan, loose money, market outlook, monetary stance, uk, us, USA, world equities
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January 2nd, 2013
Country /
Asset |
Influencing economic and political factors |
USA
|
|
| Equities |
Expecting poor gains till after 2014 on belated US government
austerity and in anticipation of Fed tightening. |
| Govt Bonds |
Fed loose money and government austerity maintains support,
until targeted inflation and employment levels in 2014. |
UK
|
|
| Equities |
By mid 2013, the new credible central banker’s monetary and
regulatory discipline and anemic economic growth bode ill. |
| Govt Bonds |
Following US treasury lead. |
| Currency |
Slow growth and belated austerity maintain pressure. |
Eurozone
|
|
| Equities |
ECB commitment to assist troubled nations allows small switch
in from better performers. |
| Govt Bonds |
Continued recession and ECB assistance with low interest rates
and credit lines give continued support for all nations. |
| Currency |
Continued limited recovery on risk-on trades but poor growth
and continued low interest rates will eventually weigh heavy. |
Japan
|
|
| Equities |
Manufactured currency depreciation now provides fuel. |
| Govt Bonds |
Low inflation and interest rates maintain support. |
| Currency |
Commitment to an inflationary target with low interest rates
allows overvalued currency to depreciate. |
RoW
|
|
| Equities |
After strong recover since 2008 look to take money off the
table. |
| Commodities |
Loose money supports gold, others to fair worse. |
Uncertainties
- Russian political interference in its return to
free market
- Chinese growing military capabilities
- Iran
- Necessary EU & US regulation of modern
financial institutions and products
- Mid-East political uncertainty.
Tags: austerity, bonds, commodities, currency, ECB, Fed, inflation, Japan, uk
Posted in Capital Markets | No Comments »
January 2nd, 2013
Regional Analysis (Dec 31st, 2012)
USA
The US stock market was within 6.5% of an all-time high and, home prices that bottomed in 2008 show consistent
gains. Bernanke pledged further easy money till unemployment is below 6.5% (about eighteen months away) or
expected long-term inflation is higher than 2.5% (which we could already be at depending on the measure). Growth
in Government borrowing looks to be constrained either with or without political compromise, that may extend the
amount of time till the unemployment target is reached.
Eurozone
Governments with unreasonable market borrowing rates can have unlimited refinancing from the ECB as long as
agreed austerity measures are in place. Decreasing fertility requires increased productivity or immigration for
economic growth. The majority of the polarized electorate now appreciate Government spending will only increase
taxes for the diminished next generation. Whilst EU regulation constrains the free market, high unemployment and
inflation concerns remain.
Japan
An ageing population spend their savings and a small bubble of workers at their most productive assist economic
growth. The LDP’s return to power provides a mandate for the Bank of Japan to increase it’s inflation goal to 2%
and weaken the currency. Immigration controls need to be drastically relaxed to promote an improvement in the
long term economic growth rate. Un-necessary Government spending and borrowing are now reaching punishable
levels.
China
A large proportion of the working population will move into retirement, due to the one child policy. Chinese growth is
therefore expected to slow and could even decline over the next decade and a half. Even so China’s developing
consumer sector benefits from jobs in global manufacturing, attracted by cheap labour costs and traditional work
ethic. Continued public works and relaxed lending criteria assist near term economic growth.
UK
The Conservative/Liberal coalition commitment to maintaining Government borrowing at sustainable levels has
waned. Mark Carney is expected to restore the credibility of the Bank of England with monetary and regulatory
discipline. A recovery in savings rates continues to correct the UK housing market .
Tags: ageing population, austerity, bank of england, bank of japan, bernanke, China, ECB, government spending, inflation, manufacturing
Posted in Economics | No Comments »
November 29th, 2012
We are receiving an increasing number of requests for our service from tax advisers, for their clients who have already changed jobs, pension institution or retired.
We cannot provide tiered accounts, ONCE YOU HAVE retired, emigrated or allocated to a bank or insurance company that does not already provide our dedicated service.This service permits lump sum withdrawal, of a large part of a company pension (Swiss 2nd pillar), to a time of your lowest tax rate in the countries where you pay tax.
If you have already passed this opportunity we will do our best to provide a comparable result, but your choice to do what you want with your money will be limited.
Further you may have also missed the opportunity to utilise our service of: withdraw at the lowest Swiss withholding tax rate.
From the desk of,
Steven J Cohen.
Trust Control Performance
Switzerland: +41 (0)7675 36738
EU: +44 (0)7770 275 489
USA: +1 323.656.5657
stevenj@c-bm.biz
www.c-bm.biz
Regulated in Switzerland, the EU and USA.
Charter-holder of the 
Tags: changing jobs, company pension, insurance, insurance company, lump sum, Pension, pillar, Regulated, switzerland, tax advisers, us, USA, withdrawal, withholding tax rate
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October 1st, 2012
Economic Indicators
Region
|
GDP
Growth
|
Cons
Price
Increase
|
Unempl
oyment
Rate
|
Current
Account
|
Budget
Deficit
|
T-Bond Yield
|
|
2013
Forecast
%
|
2012
Forecast
%
|
Latest %
|
Forecast
2012 %
of GDP
|
Forecast
2012 %
of GDP
|
3m
|
10yr
|
USA
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
8.1
|
-3.2
|
-7.6
|
0.36
|
1.62
|
Euroarea
|
0.2
|
2.4
|
11.3
|
+0.4
|
-3.5
|
0.22
|
1.45
|
Japan
|
1.4
|
0.1
|
4.3
|
+1.2
|
-9.1
|
0.19
|
0.78
|
China
|
8.6
|
3.1
|
4.1
|
+2.8
|
-2.4
|
3.69
|
3.16
|
UK
|
1.2
|
2.7
|
8.1
|
-2.1
|
-8.4
|
0.61
|
1.76 |
Source: The Economist, Sept 29th, 2012.
Regional Analysis (Sept 29th, 2012)
USA
The US stock market was within 6.5% of an all-time high. Bernanke
announced a third round of government bond buying, which has so far
had a negligent effect on US employment. American citizens continue
to paydown debt as a result of low yields on these safest assets, which
requires a higher level of capital at retirement. Potential expiry of Bush
tax cuts and recessionary fears in the Euro Area do require Bernanke
to maintain low cash deposit rates possibly into 2014. Obama remains
likely to serve a second term. Home sales and prices are showing
encouraging signs.
Eurozone
Mario Draghi cemented his reputation, with the ECB’s ability to buy
unlimiteded debt of any country that complies with EU aid constraints.
Slowing fertility rates requires economic growth through increased
productivity or immigration. The majority of the polorized electorate now
appreaciate Government spending will only increase taxes for the
diminished next generation. Whilst EU regulation constrains the free
market, inflation threats inhibits preferred lowest borrowing rates.
Japan
An ageing population spend their savings and a small bubble of
workers at their most productive assist economic growth. The DPJ’s
historic election provides pressure on the Bank of Japan to maintain
quantitative easing and a weak of the currency. Immigration controls
need to be drastically relaxed to promote an improvement in the long
term growth rate.
China
A large proportion of the working population will move into retirement,
due to the one child policy. Chinese growth is therefore expected to
slow and could even decline over the next decade and a half. Even so
China remains a destination for a developing consumer sector and
global manufacturing which benefits from its cheap labour costs and
traditional work ethic. With expected continued public works expansion
the national debt burden is expected to expand. With inflation
moderating, monetary and targeted regulatory loosening is expect to
maintain economic growth.
UK
The Conservative/Liberal coalition commitment to maintaining
Government borrowing at sustainable levels is waning. However the
totally discredited Bank of England continue with interest rates that
support austerity. Square mile concerns remain over unknown coming
regulatory practices. An elongated house price correction provokes a
recovery in savings rates. The Olympics are not expected to maintain
any long lasting benefit.
Tags: ageing population, austerity, bank of england, bank of japan, bernanke, bush tax cuts, currency, ECB, fertility rates, government bond, government spending, house price, inflation, Japan, mario draghi, national debt
Posted in Economics | No Comments »
October 1st, 2012
Country /
Asset
|
Influencing economic and political factors
|
USA
|
|
Equities
|
Fed policy of loose money supports. Fiscal cliff decision and
baby boom tail off keeps gains honest.
|
Govt Bonds
|
Fed loose policy, low inflation and sluggish growth maintain
support.
|
UK
|
|
Equities
|
Soft on Government austerity but supported by Central Bank
lax monetary policy.
|
Govt Bonds
|
Falling inflation and slow growth support.
|
Currency
|
Loose money and slow growth maintain the ceiling.
|
Eurozone
|
|
Equities
|
Commitment to assist troubled nations provide entry to
oversold markets.
|
Govt Bonds
|
Bunds remain supported, Monti’s good work rewarded.
|
Currency
|
General trending down with pull backs on any risk-on news.
|
Japan
|
|
Equities
|
No clear break from down trend.
|
Govt Bonds
|
Low inflation and reduced government spending maintain in
range bound mode.
|
Currency
|
Commitment to an inflationary target with low interest rates
allows overvalued currency to depreciate.
|
RoW
|
|
Equities
|
Successful inflation limitation is not inhibiting underlying growth
providing long term entry points
|
Commodities
|
China decreasing growth rates keep commodity gains limited. |
Uncertainties
- Russian political interference in its return to free market
- Chinese growing military capabilities
- Iran
- Necessary EU & US regulation of modern financial
institutions and products
- Mid-East political uncertainty.
Tags: austerity, bonds, China, commodities, currency, Fed, government spending, inflation, Japan, loose money, monetary policy, uk, USA
Posted in Capital Markets | No Comments »
September 16th, 2012
For those wishing to establish or transfer over your 3rd pillar Swiss pension account.
Of the 35 funds that we presently advise on, in the last twelve months 11 have provided returns over 10%.
In the last three years, 7 have provided returns over 4% per annum.
And in the last five years, 6 have provided returns of more than 2% per annum.
Against the present best cash accounts of 2.25%, our cash return of 1.5% indicates the safety of our custodian accounts.
Our transparent fees of 0.8%, allow your account to held in the lowest taxed Canton, with supervisory and management services providing stable returns, diversified over several financial companies.
For the full benefits of our 3rd pillar pension account (as well as previous Swiss company 2nd pillar pensions) and a brief list of fund providers please visit our webpage www.c-bm.biz/3pillar (contains audio content).
Please note that from the end of October I will be temporarily working out of our Marbella Spain offices, increasing the normal postage times for establishing the account.
With kind regards,
Steven J Cohen.
Trust Control Performance
Switzerland: +41 (0)7675 36738
EU: +44 (0)7770 275 489 and +44 (0)7982 405 381
USA: +1 323.656.5657
stevenj@c-bm.biz
www.c-bm.biz/ifp (includes audio content)
Regulated in Switzerland, the EU and USA.
Charter-holder of the
Tags: 2nd pillar, 3rd pillar, Canton, CFA, Marbella, marbella spain, Pension, Regulated, Spain, switzerland, USA
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July 2nd, 2012
Tags: 2nd pillar, 3rd pillar, BVG, company pension, dritte Säule, LLP, Pension, pricewaterhousecoopers, schwyz, social security, Swiss, switzerland, tax, withdrawal, zweite Säule
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July 2nd, 2012
Country /
Asset |
Influencing economic and political factors |
| USA |
|
| Equities |
Fed policy of loose money supports. Fiscal cliff decision and
baby boom tail off keeps gains honest. |
| Govt Bonds |
Fed loose policy, low inflation and sluggish growth maintain
support. |
| UK |
|
| Equities |
Soft on Government austerity but supported by Central Bank
lax monetary policy. |
| Govt Bonds |
Falling inflation and slow growth support. |
| Currency |
Loose money and slow growth maintain the ceiling. |
| Eurozone |
|
| Equities |
Commitment to assist troubled nations provide entry to
oversold markets. |
| Govt Bonds |
Bunds remain supported, Monti’s good work rewarded. |
| Currency |
General trending down with pull backs on any risk-on news. |
| Japan |
|
| Equities |
No clear break from down trend. |
| Govt Bonds |
Low inflation and reduced government spending maintain in
range bound mode. |
| Currency |
Commitment to an inflationary target with low interest rates
allows overvalued currency to depreciate. |
| RoW |
|
| Equities |
Successful inflation limitation is not inhibiting underlying growth
providing long term entry points |
| Commodities |
China decreasing growth rates keep commodity gains limited. |
Tags: austerity, baby boom, bonds, commodities, currency, Fed, inflation, Japan, monetary policy, Monti, uk, us
Posted in Capital Markets | No Comments »
