| Country / Asset |
Influencing economic and political factors |
| USA |
|
| Equities | Expecting poor gains till after 2014 on belated US government austerity and in anticipation of Fed tightening. |
| Govt Bonds | Fed loose money and government austerity maintains support, until targeted inflation and employment levels in 2014. |
| UK |
|
| Equities | By mid 2013, the new credible central banker’s monetary and regulatory discipline and anemic economic growth bode ill. |
| Govt Bonds | Following US treasury lead. |
| Currency | Slow growth and belated austerity maintain pressure. |
| Eurozone |
|
| Equities | ECB commitment to assist troubled nations allows small switch in from better performers. |
| Govt Bonds | Continued recession and ECB assistance with low interest rates and credit lines give continued support for all nations. |
| Currency | Continued limited recovery on risk-on trades but poor growth and continued low interest rates will eventually weigh heavy. |
| Japan |
|
| Equities | Manufactured currency depreciation now provides fuel. |
| Govt Bonds | Low inflation and interest rates maintain support. |
| Currency | Commitment to an inflationary target with low interest rates allows overvalued currency to depreciate. |
| RoW |
|
| Equities | After strong recover since 2008 look to take money off the table. |
| Commodities | Loose money supports gold, others to fair worse. |
Uncertainties
- Russian political interference in its return to
free market
- Chinese growing military capabilities
- Iran
- Necessary EU & US regulation of modern
financial institutions and products
- Mid-East political uncertainty.
Tags: austerity, bonds, commodities, currency, ECB, Fed, inflation, Japan, uk