Duke & the Donald.

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Was he sensitive, was he hell? Did he ride to the rescue…..more times than you’ve had hot dinners. And boy could he walk, talk & shoot straight. If he starred in a modern political feature his usual “can-do”character may have got into the following minor scraps and righting of wrongs.

Fiscal Reform:

Simplifying and reducing tax rates, encouraging: investment at home, employment and, rewards for success in business and career.

Fiscal Easing:

Reminiscent of Reaganomics unmet spending, but this time from Debt levels not seen since the end of WWII. With demand from global pension plans to meet cash requirements of the expanding number of retirees, allowing easy adoption of increased issuance, until expanding US growth rates permits increased tax recovery and Debt pay-down.

Infrastructure & Urban Regeneration:

Not talking bridges to nowhere as in the Japanese example, for fertility rates in the US are still reasonable and the legal immigration policy liberal. But improving productivity and bringing previously criminal elements into legal activities boosting growth and tax collection.

Reduced Regulation:

Relaxation of the burden on small business to enter markets and complete against global market leaders, bringing back the local feel. And a return of Caveat Emptor improving the self-reliance and diminishing the hollering in recent generations.

Realigned Foreign Policy:

Requiring Allied nations to meet defence spending requirements that may reduce the need for US foreign bases that have prevented any recent major European wars. Not undermining solid allies with a shared cultural outlook, together with a healthy scepticism of vocal cultural opponents, thereby providing certainty of deterrent. Even the Duke would never call US citizens of Mexican heritage, rapist, murderers and drug dealers and would have found it inconceivable to want to eliminate the Chicano vote. Unless the comments were referring to ILLEGAL immigrants whilst still assuming some of them are good people. Profiling of LEGAL entrants who’s cultures are sympathetic to extremist/criminal activities.

Renegotiated Trade Agreements:

Whilst most country trading surpluses are caused by large savings and productivity gains they are also usually accompanied by a certain amount of xenophobia. Restriction of free trade can be inflationary but may also bring in the huge amount of people not counted as looking for work and an incentive to invest in robotics.

And the fantastic cinematography that usually accompanies Duke’s features? This is being provided by the beautiful and breathtaking capital markets reaction of higher expected growth and a decent yield on fixed income savings of the more conservative.

But what of the plot, of course that would depend on the director of the feature?

Directed by Michael Moore we’ll just get a remake of the Alamo, when the Central Bank returns to its misguided ways of belated and exaggerated action to stifle this hero’s efforts.

But with Quentin Tarantino we’ll get his reboot of the Searchers with the search, discovery but this time, successful reuniting of America with it’s Greatness.

Magna Carta, English Civil War, Y2K…….Brexit.

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We finally really did it…You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn You! God damn you all to hell!” Cry the Bremain supporters, EU politicians and FX and equity capital markets.

The departing and presumptive British PMs suggests a period of calm negotiations before any change occurs. EU politicians and administrators continue their disregard for democracy and demand immediate panic, liberal elite demand disenfranchisement of over half the British public, and investors, employers and capital markets bemoan uncertainty.

The benefits of free trade remain: purchasing of goods from the cheapest source allowing allocation of remaining resources to the most relative productive activity.

In the coming re-negotiations Britain approach from a position of strength, it accepts net services and goods from the EU and the rest of the world, any threat to allowing British goods and services into Europe (as long as they meet EU regulatory standards) could be met with even harsher reprisal. Of course as the UK is smaller than the EU the relative effect would hurt the UK more. But both Switzerland & Norway with massive net exports have access to the EU free market for which they pay, on this basis the UK could maintain access and receive a net receipt.

Under free movement of labour Britain again receives net migration from the EU. Britain could limit EU immigration, on a one-to-one basis, to the highest quality and demanded resources without jeopardising British nationals working or living in their homes in the EU.

Britain is also a net contributor to the subsidies and grants of the EU, for that benefit it is allowed access to the decision and law making processes that is shared with 27 other nations. Whilst the direction of political EU and UK may now differ, the UK would be free to adopt any of the best in-class practises from the EU without having to contribute to the EU treasury.

For trade with the rest of the world any existing EU agreements with the rest of the world could also be adopted by the UK and the non-EU blocks until if necessary renegotiation take place.

A call for calm rational negotiations by British leaders and the head of the other successful economy in the EU (and provider of the British royal family, maintained after the Magna Carta, reinstalled after the English Civil War as a constitutional monarchy and, possible model for UK’s continued membership of the EU) would lead to a beneficial outcome for both sides (and a similar non event to the Y2K). The rash hysterical shrill for punitive action from the world liberal elite provides the reasoning for British exit, but also evokes uncertainty for the UK, EU and rest of the world.

Economic Outlook March 2016

Regional Analysis (March 30th, 2016)

USA

At the December 2015 meeting the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.375%. At the March 2016 meeting they expect them to be at 0.9% by the end of 2016. The members also further reduced growth, unemployment and inflation expectations.

Eurozone

At the March meeting, the ECB further lowered deposit interest rates to -0.4%, with expectations for it to remain at the present or lower levels for an extended period of time. Monthly asset purchases were expanded to €80bn/month, permitted purchases from individual organisations and banks issues were expanded to 50%, and
non-bank corporations are now included. Further a new long term lending facility to banks commenced. The growth expectations were reduced with risks to the downside.

Japan

Three main policies were decided at the January Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting to achieve the price stability target of 2%. The introduction of a minus 0.1%% interest rates for bank deposits. An annual increase in the monetary base of 80 tr yen. Together with, annual purchases of: 80 tr yen of Japanese government bonds, 3 tr of exchange traded funds, 90 bn yen of real estate investment trusts, 2.2 tr yen of commercial paper and 3.2 tr yen of corporate bonds. Immigration controls need to be drastically relaxed to aid growth so taxes can reduce Government borrowing.

China

The People’s Bank of China sees economic downward pressure in the face of restructuring, they are attempting to moderate the expansion of aggregate demand, while supply-side structural reforms accelerate.. They continue to reduce loan and deposit rates and the reserve requirement ratio together with other policies, whilst foreign exchange balances are reduced. They also aim to eventually allow the market to decide the exchange rate, whilst also managing this transition.

UK

The Bank of England maintained the Bank Rate at 0.5% and the stock of reserve financed purchased assets at £375bn. Drops in energy and food prices, global inflation and, domestic costs anchored domestic inflation below the 2% target. Private domestic demand, the labour market and productivity are all supportive of UK growth. The referendum on the UK membership of the EU was seen as an uncertainty for growth and financial stability.

Economic Outlook December 2015

Regional Analysis (December 29th, 2015)

USA

At the December Meeting the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.375% and expect them to be at 1.4%  by the end of 2016. The members increased growth but reduced unemployment and inflation expectations.

Eurozone

At the December Meeting, the ECB lowered deposit interest rates to -0.3% extended full allotment fixed tender till the end  of 2017, extended asset purchases till beyond March 2017 include euro regional and local government debt and  reinvest principal payments. They slightly lowered inflation expectations.

Japan

Members of the Bank of Japan monetary policy by a reduced majority extended the maturity of Government Bond  purchases to 7-12 years, they also noted that exports and investment in physical and human capital have been picking up, although business sentiment and inflation expectations have been slowing. Immigration controls need
to be drastically relaxed to aid growth so taxes can reduce Government borrowing.

China

The People’s Bank of China sees mass entrepreneurship and innovation and the supply of public goods and  services forming the engine for economic growth, although downward pressures remained high. They continue to  reduce loan and deposit rates and the reserve requirement ratio. The central parity of the currency against the  dollar was reduced by 1.6%.

UK

The Bank of England expects inflation to stay below 1% for at least the next six months but exceed the 2% target  after two years with no further action. The Governments Autumn Statement means a lower pace of deficit reduction, but still impacting growth. Nominal pay growth appears to have flattened. The Monetary Policy  Committee expects rates to rise gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles.