Duke & the Donald.

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Was he sensitive, was he hell? Did he ride to the rescue…..more times than you’ve had hot dinners. And boy could he walk, talk & shoot straight. If he starred in a modern political feature his usual “can-do”character may have got into the following minor scraps and righting of wrongs.

Fiscal Reform:

Simplifying and reducing tax rates, encouraging: investment at home, employment and, rewards for success in business and career.

Fiscal Easing:

Reminiscent of Reaganomics unmet spending, but this time from Debt levels not seen since the end of WWII. With demand from global pension plans to meet cash requirements of the expanding number of retirees, allowing easy adoption of increased issuance, until expanding US growth rates permits increased tax recovery and Debt pay-down.

Infrastructure & Urban Regeneration:

Not talking bridges to nowhere as in the Japanese example, for fertility rates in the US are still reasonable and the legal immigration policy liberal. But improving productivity and bringing previously criminal elements into legal activities boosting growth and tax collection.

Reduced Regulation:

Relaxation of the burden on small business to enter markets and complete against global market leaders, bringing back the local feel. And a return of Caveat Emptor improving the self-reliance and diminishing the hollering in recent generations.

Realigned Foreign Policy:

Requiring Allied nations to meet defence spending requirements that may reduce the need for US foreign bases that have prevented any recent major European wars. Not undermining solid allies with a shared cultural outlook, together with a healthy scepticism of vocal cultural opponents, thereby providing certainty of deterrent. Even the Duke would never call US citizens of Mexican heritage, rapist, murderers and drug dealers and would have found it inconceivable to want to eliminate the Chicano vote. Unless the comments were referring to ILLEGAL immigrants whilst still assuming some of them are good people. Profiling of LEGAL entrants who’s cultures are sympathetic to extremist/criminal activities.

Renegotiated Trade Agreements:

Whilst most country trading surpluses are caused by large savings and productivity gains they are also usually accompanied by a certain amount of xenophobia. Restriction of free trade can be inflationary but may also bring in the huge amount of people not counted as looking for work and an incentive to invest in robotics.

And the fantastic cinematography that usually accompanies Duke’s features? This is being provided by the beautiful and breathtaking capital markets reaction of higher expected growth and a decent yield on fixed income savings of the more conservative.

But what of the plot, of course that would depend on the director of the feature?

Directed by Michael Moore we’ll just get a remake of the Alamo, when the Central Bank returns to its misguided ways of belated and exaggerated action to stifle this hero’s efforts.

But with Quentin Tarantino we’ll get his reboot of the Searchers with the search, discovery but this time, successful reuniting of America with it’s Greatness.

What’s going on – Are we heading for another Great Recession?

We are now eight years on from the global catastrophe of the “Great Recession”, but with the US stock market (SPY, DIA, QQQ) banging up against all time highs and global stock market indices (ACWI) recovering to all time peaks reached twelve months ago, can one assume all is swell the global economy?

Unemployment levels in the US are fast approaching levels pre Recession and in Europe it is finally showing meaningful reduction from the peaks of 2013 a story repeated in many of the worlds largest economies.

The policies to get us here have been a mixture of both traditional and extreme. From the US we’ve had traditional government spending unmet by tax collection together with interest rate cuts, to the extreme with the Central Bank purchasing the government debt with conjured money. Europe has avoided expanding government spending but have gone to the far side of extreme with negative interest rates. Japan is using all of the above and China has gone the way of massive relaxation of lending restrictions to the private sector that comically sloshes around.

If all was well with the world it would be time to stop these policies, and indeed the US stopped magically producing money several months ago and have even had an interest rate increase.

However the information content of the developed world government bond markets (BWX) are signalling something very sinister, most are providing a yield around the current inflation rate or, expectations of no inflation usually caused by coming slow growth or recession. This indicates that we are again in the era of potential policy mistakes.

In an appraisal of the policies that have already been installed, US government debt relatively reaching WWII leaves very little room for further support unless in desire of a centrally planned economy. The EU have been late to the party on cutting interest rates and conjuring money but should be applauded for government austerity in the face of a reducing tax base. Japan has morphed into a basket case but China continues to grow at an envious rate for the time being. Unfortunately negative interest rates for retail and corporate banks have not made them lend more but punished pension plans, mainly due to increased financial regulation.

Even more comical than which quarterly bubble private lending is funding in China, is that they have embarked on empowering the private sector, where as the US is empowering the government and the previously failed establishment. It is in fact a shame that the US information technology revolution of the last forty years have passed their rulers and central bankers by. Today “community” platforms (LC, TREE) are enabling borrowing from highest quality risk takers, to increase productivity and create growth, with enviable interest rates and data collection to the lender. Central bankers, however, continue to support their former work alumni and ignore calling for mandates to fund “community” platforms.

In support of the old school at the US Federal Reserve, they correctly watched the stock market or as they call it “data” to help determine when to make their first interest rate rise, but now is the time to start waiting for yields in their unsupported bond market (TLT) to recover. Although employment is at high levels, US central bankers can be relaxed with their inflation mandate, as corporate profitability is very tight, lay-offs are preferable to reduced margins.

There is little room for error but a policy mistake can take us back to the last decade including a stock-market crash.

Economic Outlook December 2015

Regional Analysis (December 29th, 2015)

USA

At the December Meeting the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.375% and expect them to be at 1.4%  by the end of 2016. The members increased growth but reduced unemployment and inflation expectations.

Eurozone

At the December Meeting, the ECB lowered deposit interest rates to -0.3% extended full allotment fixed tender till the end  of 2017, extended asset purchases till beyond March 2017 include euro regional and local government debt and  reinvest principal payments. They slightly lowered inflation expectations.

Japan

Members of the Bank of Japan monetary policy by a reduced majority extended the maturity of Government Bond  purchases to 7-12 years, they also noted that exports and investment in physical and human capital have been picking up, although business sentiment and inflation expectations have been slowing. Immigration controls need
to be drastically relaxed to aid growth so taxes can reduce Government borrowing.

China

The People’s Bank of China sees mass entrepreneurship and innovation and the supply of public goods and  services forming the engine for economic growth, although downward pressures remained high. They continue to  reduce loan and deposit rates and the reserve requirement ratio. The central parity of the currency against the  dollar was reduced by 1.6%.

UK

The Bank of England expects inflation to stay below 1% for at least the next six months but exceed the 2% target  after two years with no further action. The Governments Autumn Statement means a lower pace of deficit reduction, but still impacting growth. Nominal pay growth appears to have flattened. The Monetary Policy  Committee expects rates to rise gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles.